Growth with Imbalance: Changing Dynamics in Agriculture

 

Growth with Imbalance: Changing Dynamics in Agriculture

Professor Dr. Md. Jafar Ullah

Former Dean, Faculty of Agriculture
Sher-e-Bangla Agricultural University, Dhaka

 

(Written on 25 December 2026)

Agricultural Growth Amid Structural Transformation

Over the past five decades, Bangladesh’s agricultural sector has experienced substantial growth in absolute terms. At market prices, agricultural gross domestic product increased from Tk 4,296.82 crore in 1970 to approximately Tk 558,500 crore in 2024. Yet, despite this impressive expansion, agriculture’s relative contribution to national GDP declined sharply—from nearly 60 percent in the early 1970s to about 11.16 percent in recent years.

This contrasting picture reflects not stagnation, but a deeper structural transformation within the economy and within agriculture itself. A closer look at the sector reveals notable shifts among its major sub-sectors, particularly crops and forests, both of which have seen a decline in their relative importance.

The Declining Dominance of Crop Agriculture

In 1970, crop agriculture overwhelmingly dominated the sector, accounting for an estimated 72 percent of agricultural GDP. By 2024, this share declined to around 57 percent, despite continued growth in absolute value. Several interrelated factors explain this trend.

Land Scarcity: The Fundamental Constraint

First, Land scarcity has emerged as a binding constraint. Rapid population growth, urbanization, infrastructure development, and competing land uses have steadily reduced cultivable land. Crop production, being highly land-dependent, has therefore faced natural limits to expansion.

Slowing Productivity Growth

Second, productivity gains in crop agriculture have slowed. Early breakthroughs from high-yielding varieties, irrigation expansion, and increased input use delivered significant gains in earlier decades. However, in the absence of major technological leaps, climate-resilient practices, and large-scale mechanization, yield growth has become more incremental.

Climate Change and Rising Production Risks

Third, climate variability has disproportionately affected crop production. Increased frequency of floods, droughts, salinity intrusion, and erratic rainfall patterns have heightened production risks. These uncertainties reduce incentives for long-term investment in crop agriculture and undermine income stability for farmers.

The Rise of Fisheries and Livestock

In contrast, fisheries and livestock have demonstrated stronger growth dynamics. Available national accounts estimates suggest that fisheries GDP increased from Tk 515.62 crore in 1970 to about Tk 163,500 crore in 2024, raising its contribution to agricultural GDP from roughly 12 percent to over 29 percent. Livestock also expanded steadily, increasing its share from around 11 percent in 1970 to nearly 14 percent in 2024.

Drivers of Growth in High-Value Agricultural Sub-sectors

These sub-sectors benefited from commercialization, shorter production cycles, higher returns per unit of land, and stronger market integration. Aquaculture, in particular, adapted well to land constraints and growing domestic demand, making it an increasingly attractive investment.

The Silent Decline of Forestry

The forest sub-sector, however, presents a different and more concerning trajectory. Although forest GDP increased from an estimated Tk 214.84 crore in 1970 to around Tk 12,000 crore in 2024, its share in total agricultural GDP declined from about 5 percent to just over 2 percent.

Why Forests Continue to Lag Behind

This relative decline is not due to lack of importance, but rather to long-standing structural neglect. Forest resources have been under sustained pressure from population expansion, land conversion, and unsustainable extraction. Limited investment in afforestation, weak institutional management, and insufficient recognition of ecosystem services have further constrained growth.

Forests Beyond GDP: Their Ecological Value

Unlike crops or fisheries, forests generate long-term ecological and economic benefits rather than immediate financial returns. As a result, they have often remained peripheral in development planning, despite their crucial role in climate resilience, biodiversity conservation, and environmental stability.

Towards a More Balanced Agricultural Strategy

The changing composition of agriculture highlights the need for a more balanced development strategy. Crop agriculture requires renewed emphasis on productivity enhancement through research, diversification, mechanization, and climate-smart technologies. At the same time, forestry demands long-term policy commitment, sustainable management, and proper valuation of its environmental services.

Beyond Growth: The Importance of Structural Balance

Agricultural performance should not be assessed solely by aggregate GDP growth. Structural balance within the sector is equally important for food security, environmental sustainability, and rural livelihoods.

Conclusion: Building a Resilient Agricultural Future

The relative decline of crops and forests serves as a reminder that growth without balance can create hidden vulnerabilities. Understanding these structural shifts is essential for designing policies that ensure a resilient and inclusive agricultural future.

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